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Floods of the Guadalentin River, Southeast Spain

Reference
Benito, G., Rico, M., Sanchez-Moya, Y., Sopena, A., Thorndycraft, V.R. and Barriendos, M. 2010. The impact of late Holocene climatic variability and land use change on the flood hydrology of the Guadalentin River, southeast Spain. Global and Planetary Change 70: 53-63.
Working in southeast Spain, Benito et al. reconstructed flood frequencies of the Upper Guadalentin River using "geomorphological evidence, combined with one-dimensional hydraulic modeling and supported by records from documentary sources at Lorca in the lower Guadalentin catchment."

The combined palaeoflood and documentary records indicated that past floods were clustered during particular time periods: AD 950-1200 (10), AD 1648-1672 (10), AD 1769-1802 (9), AD 1830-1840 (6), and AD 1877-1900 (10), where the first time interval coincides with the Medieval Warm Period and the latter four time intervals all fall within the confines of the Little Ice Age; and by calculating mean rates of flood occurrence over each of the five intervals, one obtains a value of 0.40 floods per decade during the Medieval Warm Period, and an average value of 4.31 floods per decade over the four parts of the Little Ice Age, which latter value is more than ten times greater than the mean flood frequency experienced during the Medieval Warm Period.

If the difference in flood frequency between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age is as tightly coupled to global temperature conditions as is suggested by Benito et al.'s study, it would appear that southeast Spain has little to fear in the way of increased flooding in a potentially warmer world of the future.

Archived 12 May 2010