Floods of the Upper Midwest United States: A 75-Year History
Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Baeck, M.L. and Krajewski, W.F. 2011. Examining flood frequency distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47: 447-463.
In an effort to determine if Upper Midwest U.S. floods have been increasing in recent years, as climate alarmists claim should be happening all around the world in response to global warming, Villarini et al. "analyzed the annual maximum instantaneous flood peak distributions for 196 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations with a record of at least 75 years over the Midwest U.S."
The four U.S. researchers report that in the vast majority of cases where streamflow changes were observed, they were "associated with change-points (both in mean and variance) rather than monotonic trends," and they indicate that "these non-stationarities are often associated with anthropogenic effects." But rather than increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, they cite such things as "changes in land use/land cover, changes in agricultural practice, and construction of dams and reservoirs."
Based on their findings, and, as they note, "in agreement with previous studies (Olsen et al., 1999; Villarini et al., 2009)," they conclude that "there is little indication that anthropogenic climate change has significantly affected the flood frequency distribution for the Midwest U.S." And as they make doubly clear in the abstract of their paper, they say that "trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change."
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Villarini, G., Serinaldi, F., Smith, J.A. and Krajewski, W.F. 2009. On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century. Water Resources Research 45: 10.1029/2008WR007645.