A Global Analysis of Historical Tropical Cyclone Landfalls
Weinkle, J., Maue, R. and Pielke Jr., R. 2012. Historical global tropical cyclone landfalls. Journal of Climate 25: 4729-4735.
"Using currently available historical TC best-track records," in the words of Weinkle et al., they constructed "a global database focused on global or individual basin trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs of minor or major hurricane strength." In doing so the three U.S. researchers identified considerable interannual variability in the frequency of global hurricane landfalls; but they say that "within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long-period global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major or total hurricanes within the period(s) covered by the available quality data."
In discussing their findings, Weinkle et al. say their long-period analysis "does not support claims that increasing TC landfall frequency or landfall intensity has contributed to concomitantly increasing economic losses." And they conclude with the reassuring fact that their quantitative analysis of global hurricane landfalls "is consistent with previous research focused on normalized losses associated with hurricanes that have found no trends once data are properly adjusted for societal factors (e.g., Pielke et al., 2008; Crompton and McAneney, 2008; Neumayer and Barthel, 2011; Barthel and Neumayer, 2012; Bouwer, 2011; Raghavan and Rajesh, 2003)."
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Pielke Jr., R.A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C.W., Collins, D., Saunders, M.A. and Musulin, R. 2008. Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900-2005. Natural Hazards Review 9: 29-42.
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