Arctic Clouds and Sea Ice in CMIP5 Climate Models
Karlsson, J. and Svensson, G. 2013. Consequences of poor representation of Arctic sea-ice albedo and cloud-radiation interactions in the CMIP5 model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters 40: 4374-4379.
In describing their findings the two researchers report that "the across-model spread in Arctic cloud cover and cloud condensates is substantial, and no improvement is seen from previous model intercomparisons (Karlsson and Svenson, 2011)." And they note that "this diversity of simulated Arctic clouds in the CMIP5 ensemble contributes to a spread in the models' cloud influence on the surface energy budget."
In the concluding sentence of their paper, the two Stockholm (Sweden) University scientists state that "the fact that present-day sea-ice albedo is so badly constrained in GCMs [global climate models] impacts the fidelity of future scenario assessments of the Arctic region and should therefore be a concern for the modeling community." In other words, we're not there yet ... and we've been stalled in our forward progress for several years.
Karlsson, J. and Svensson, G. 2011. The simulation of Arctic clouds and their influence on the winter surface temperature in present-day climate in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Climate Dynamics 36: 623-635.