Modeling the South American Monsoon System
Jones, C. and Carvalho, L.M.V. 2013. Climate change in the South American Monsoon System: Present climate and CMIP5 projections. Journal of Climate 26: 6660-6678.
"Motivated by the availability of CMIP5 model simulations," Jones and Carvalho say they investigated the following questions: (1) "Are there significant trends in the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS?" And (2) "Do CMIP5 climate models realistically simulate the observed characteristics of the SAMS?" At the conclusion of their analysis, the two researchers report that "some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions." However, they also state that "several models have serious deficiencies," including (1) "excessive precipitation over northeast Brazil," (2) "displaced ITCZ [Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone]," (3) "double ITCZ," and (4) "too little precipitation over the eastern Amazon (near the mouth of the Amazon River)."
All things considered, Jones and Carvalho say that "the results of this study indicate lack of spatial agreement in the CMIP5 model projections of changes in total wet-season precipitation over South America," and, therefore, they conclude that "how precipitation during the SAMS will change in the coming decades is still an open question."
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