Modeling East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation
Chen, H. and Sun, J. 2013. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 121: 55-77.
First of all, the two researchers found that "most of the models in CMIP5 underestimated the amount of precipitation over China, Korea and Japan," and that some of them even "lacked the Meiyu belt over this region." In addition, they say that "because of the underestimation by most of the models, the MMEs (multi-model ensembles) of all of the models also showed a negative bias." Secondly, a number of the models additionally showed "almost no skill in simulating the precipitation frequency." And they add that "similar to the single models, the frequency was also overestimated by the MMEs in the high- and low-latitude regions of East Asia." Last of all, they report that "most of the models under-estimated the precipitation intensity over eastern China, Korea, Japan and their adjacent oceans."
Chen and Sun conclude their examination by stating that "similar to the results based on CMIP3 models, CMIP5 models also show no skill in simulating precipitation variation with time," and, therefore, they say that "more research is needed in the future to further improve the reliability of climate projections."