Tropical Cyclone Activity as Expressed in CMIP5 Models
Camargo, S.J. 2013. Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate 26: 9880-9902.
Results indicate that (1) "the simulation of TC activity in the CMIP5 models is not as good as in higher-resolution simulations," that (2) "the CMIP5 global TC frequency is much lower than observed," that (3) "there is significant deficiency in the geographical patterns of TC tracks and formation," that (4) "the models present a wide range of global TC frequency," that (5) "a cold SST [sea surface temperature] bias could potentially contribute to the low number of TCs in the models," that (6) "the models show no consensus regarding the difference of TC activity in two warming scenarios and the historical simulation," and that (7) "there is no robust signal across the CMIP5 models in global and regional TC changes in activity for future scenarios."
After many years of trying to mathematically simulate the many important aspects of global climate change, the climate modeling community has yet to produce a realistic replica of associated changes in real-world TC characteristics and behaviors.