The Modeling of Low-Frequency Rainfall Variability
Rocheta, E., Sugiyanto, M., Johnson, F., Evans, J. and Sharma, A. 2014. How well do general circulation models represent low-frequency rainfall variability? Water Resources Research 59: 2108-2123.
Based on their analysis, the five Australian researchers report "it was found that there were (1) large spatial variations in the skill of GCMs to capture observed rainfall persistence, (2) widespread under-simulation of rainfall persistence characteristics in GCMs, and (3) substantial improvement in rainfall persistence," but only "after applying bias correction." Thus, as has been found to be the case in so many other studies of the integrity of state-of-the-art climate models, the findings of Rocheta et al. clearly indicate that current GCMs are not yet up to the task of reliably representing low-frequency rainfall variability.
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