CMIP3 & CMIP5 Models Characterizing Amazonian Precipitation
Joetzjer, E., Douville, H., Delire, C. and Ciais, P. 2013. Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3. Climate Dynamics 41: 2921-2936.
The four researchers report, while "significant improvements have been made from CMIP3 to CMIP5 to capture present-day precipitation over the Amazon basin," "strong uncertainties remain in the climate projections" that "arise from contrasted anomalies in both moisture convergence and evapotranspiration," which "might be related to the diverse response of tropical SST and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability, as well as to spurious behaviors among the models that show the most extreme response." Joetzjer et al. succinctly summarize the implications of their findings in the concluding sentence of their paper's abstract, stating "model improvements of present-day climate do not necessarily translate into more reliable projections and further efforts are needed for constraining the pattern of the SST response and the soil moisture feedback in global climate scenarios."
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