Looking for Progress in Modeling the Continental Indian Monsoon
Ramesh, K.V. and Goswami, P. 2014. Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon. Scientific Reports 4: 10.1038/srep04071.
First of all, the two researchers found that "both CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations exhibit large spreads in simulations of average monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability." Second, they say "the all-simulation ensemble of CMIP5 shows a decadal variability but with phases essentially opposite to those of observations," leading them to admit CMIP5 models "have poorer quality than the CMIP3 in simulating the observed features of CIM." Ramesh and Goswami thus conclude "our results show that no significant progress has been achieved in our ability to simulate basic quantities like observed seasonal mean and trend, and hence to project the regional climate system, namely CIM, with reasonable certainty," which suggests this aspect of the climate modeling enterprise of the past few years has actually led to retrogression rather than progression.