Modeling Rainfall Over Burkina Faso
Ibrahim, B., Karambiri, H., Polcher, J., Yacouba, H. and Ribstein, P. 2014. Changes in rainfall regime over Burkina Faso under the climate change conditions simulated by 5 regional climate models. Climate Dynamics 42: 1363-1381.
The five researchers report that (1) "the simulated relationship between changed annual rainfall amounts and the number of rain days or their intensity varies strongly from one model to another," that (2) "the climate models' simulations do not show any consensus in the trends of the annual rainfall amount over the West African Sahel during the 21st century, even when they are run under the same climate change scenario at a high spatial resolution," and that (3) "some changes do not correspond to what is observed for the rainfall variability over the last 50 years."
In light of what they learned, Ibrahim et al. conclude their paper with the statement that it is "unlikely that the uncertainty in rainfall changes projected for West Africa will decrease unless the parameterizations of convection are substantially improved (Grandpeix and Lafore, 2010) or the resolution of the RCM is sufficiently high to simulate some aspects of convection explicitly." And even if the latter two conditions are ultimately met, there is still the possibility that something else might be further foiling the project.
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